Larson's Political Economy

Larson's Political Economy

False Research: Tariffs Cause Inflation

Prominent Fed economist reports tariff-based inflation that does not exist.

Sven R Larson's avatar
Sven R Larson
Jun 11, 2025
∙ Paid

Never Bark At the Big Dog. The Big Dog Is Always Right.

Back in April I gave an account of the most protruding doomsday scenarios that critics of President Trump’s tariffs had concocted. I also explained why they were all wrong.

Since then, I have repeatedly noted that there will be no lasting inflation effect from Trump’s tariffs. Other economists have worked overtime to extract any kind of inflation effect from the tariffs. I have patiently continued to reject their inflation arguments.

The latest consumer-price inflation figure for the U.S. economy confirms that my analysis is correct: the latest CPI numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show a 2.35 percent annual inflation rate in May—completely in line with what we could expect.

I would be completely satisfied if reality slowly but steadily proved me right (as it has so many times in the past). But when I find that some of the tariff-inflation arguments out there are based on sloppy research, I get irritated. When, on top of that, I find that at least one important contribution is downright false, I cannot let it pass. The example I am presenting here is to egregious and so embarrassing for the highly reputable institution that published it, that I am at loss asking why the ‘scholar’ in question still has a job with them.

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